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Re-arrange some biological parameter slides
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quang-huynh committed Oct 16, 2024
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42 changes: 21 additions & 21 deletions slides/dogfish-rpr-slides.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -641,14 +641,6 @@ include_graphics("../figs/length-age-comparison.png")
- High variability in length-at-age relationship, but dogfish also difficult to age (Appendix C.1)
]

---
# Natural mortality

- Estimated from maximum observed age and meta-analytic equation (Hamel and Cope 2022): $M = 5.4/A_\textrm{max} = 0.065$
- Maximum age of 85 years (observed in the 1980s, G. MacFarlane)
- Sex-invariant natural mortality given similar longevity between females and males
- Alternative values explored in population modeling (0.057, 0.074)

---
## BC + US samples vs. US-assessment estimated

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -705,6 +697,14 @@ Based on Ketchen (1972); convert length to age
include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/fecundity.png")
```

---
# Natural mortality

- Estimated from maximum observed age and meta-analytic equation (Hamel and Cope 2022): $M = 5.4/A_\textrm{max} = 0.065$
- Maximum age of 85 years (observed in the 1980s, G. MacFarlane)
- Sex-invariant natural mortality given similar longevity between females and males
- Alternative values explored in population modeling (0.057, 0.074)

---
# Unfished replacement line

Expand All @@ -729,12 +729,12 @@ class: center, middle, inverse
.xsmall[
Sex segregated age-structured population model (Stock Synthesis 3) fitted to fishery & survey catch, indices, and size composition. McAllister-Ianelli algorithm to downweight the sample sizes of size composition.

Estimated selectivity, unfished recruitment, and stock-recruit productivity.

Adjust maturity ogive for two year gestation period. On average, half of mature females give birth annually.
Estimated selectivity, unfished recruitment, and stock-recruit productivity parameter.

No recruitment deviations (cohorts not observable from length data).

Adjust maturity ogive for two year gestation period. On average, half of mature females give birth annually.

In essence, a production model informed by catch and indices, while size composition informs selectivity.

Age-structure incorporates lags in stock response to exploitation pattern (selectivity and fishing mortality).
Expand All @@ -743,11 +743,11 @@ Age-structure incorporates lags in stock response to exploitation pattern (selec
---
## A stock-recruit curve for Dogfish-like species

Low fecundity limits stock productivity. Example to illustrate:
Low fecundity limits productivity of closed populations. Example to illustrate:

Imagine an unfished population N = 100 adults, which produce 10 pups/adult, that's 1,000 pups (B0). If pup survival to recruit life stage is 0.6, then we have 600 recruits (R0).
Unfished population N = 100 adults, each produce 10 pups = 1,000 pups (B0). If pup survival to recruit life stage is 0.6, then we have 600 recruits (R0).

A population of N = 20 (0.2 B0) produces 200 pups. If steepness were 1 in a closed population, we'd have to conjure 600 recruits from 200 pups.
A population of N = 20 (0.2 B0) produces 200 pups. If steepness were 1, we'd have to conjure 600 recruits from 200 pups (proof by contradiction).

Thus, in this example, steepness should be capped at 0.33: 200 pups at 0.2B0 divided by 600 pups when unfished.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -793,7 +793,7 @@ From base model **A0**, explored various uncertainties in the set of models (Wor
- Growth (**A2–A4**)
- Natural mortality (**A9–A10**)
- Discard mortality rate (**A5**, **A14**)
- Inclusion/exclusion and weighting of index from modern surveys (**A7**, **A8**, **A13**)
- Inclusion/exclusion, weighting of index from modern surveys (**A7**, **A8**, **A13**)
- Stock-recruit productivity (**A11–A12**)
- Cause of decline in modern indices (fishery vs. non-fishery causes) (**B1–B5**)

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -844,7 +844,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/N_age_A1.png")
.tiny[
Oscillations in age classes demonstrate of the lagged effects in the population.

Early Vitamin A fishery fished out older animals (age 30+), population recovered from younger cohorts invulnerable to the fishery.
Early Vitamin A fishery fished out older females (age 30+), population recovered from younger cohorts invulnerable to the fishery.
]
]

Expand All @@ -865,9 +865,9 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/spawning_est.png")

.pull-third-right[
.tiny[
Estimated steady decline in population biomass
Top: Estimated steady decline in population biomass

Different trend in spawning output (due to differences in selectivity & maturity): declines after vitamin A fishery, subsequent recovery, and another decline
Bottom: Different trend in spawning output (due to differences in selectivity & maturity): declines after vitamin A fishery, subsequent recovery, and another decline
]
]

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -926,7 +926,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/sel_age_max1.png")

.tiny[
- Selectivity estimated by size, converted to age. Compare with maturity ogive (dotted black line)
- From size composition, landed catch is mostly female, discards have more even sex ratio
- From size composition, landed catch is mostly female, discards have more equal sex ratio
- Immature females are caught incidentally, e.g., bottom trawl discards
]

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -960,7 +960,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_b/M_year.png")
```

.small[
- Natural mortality roughly doubles in B-set of models
- Natural mortality roughly doubles in B-set of models (above replacement value)
]


Expand All @@ -987,7 +987,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/prof/like_zfrac.png")

.tiny[
- Stock-recruit productivity parameter $z_\textrm{frac}$ hits lower bound, i.e., there are no MSY reference points
- Presented results with $z_\textrm{frac}$ = 0.4, following US assessment
- Fixed $z_\textrm{frac}$ = 0.4 for most models, following US assessment
]


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