Update NBA data for new season

data/nba/nba_team_ratings.csv

@@ -1,31 +1,31 @@
 team,team_long,conf,elo_rating,win_total,tournament_group,alt_key
-BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1610,54.7,east_c,BOS
-MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1602,53.9,east_b,MIL
-MIA,Miami Heat,East,1524,45.3,east_b,MIA
-BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1463,37.3,east_c,BKN
-PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1584,51.5,west_a,PHX
-LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1546,46.5,west_b,LAC
-PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1552,48.1,east_a,PHI
-DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1594,52.5,west_b,DEN
-GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1561,48.3,west_c,GSW
-DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1525,44.3,west_b,DAL
-MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1538,45.9,west_a,MEM
-UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1452,35.5,west_a,UTA
-ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1503,42.5,east_a,ATL
-NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1526,44.5,west_b,NOP
-TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1454,36.5,east_c,TOR
-MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1529,44.7,west_c,MIN
-LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1554,47.5,west_a,LAL
-POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1391,28.5,west_a,POR
-CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1463,37.5,east_c,CHI
-CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1406,30.9,east_b,CHA
-NYK,New York Knicks,East,1531,45.5,east_b,NYK
-IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1473,38.7,east_a,IND
-CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1571,50.5,east_a,CLE
-SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1531,44.5,west_c,SAC
-SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1398,29.1,west_c,SAS
-WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1345,24.5,east_b,WAS
-ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1455,36.7,east_c,ORL
-DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1375,27.5,east_a,DET
-OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1526,44.5,west_c,OKC
-HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1416,31.5,west_b,HOU
+ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1539,35.6,east_c,ATL
+BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1764,58.2,east_c,BOS
+BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1384,20.2,east_a,BKN
+CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1471,28.4,east_c,CHI
+CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1496,31.1,east_a,CHA
+CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1673,49,east_c,CLE
+DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1445,25.9,east_b,DET
+IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1643,46.5,east_b,IND
+MIA,Miami Heat,East,1623,43.8,east_b,MIA
+MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1673,49.2,east_b,MIL
+NYK,New York Knicks,East,1711,53.2,east_a,NYK
+ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1650,47.3,east_a,ORL
+PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1670,48.6,east_a,PHI
+TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1473,28.7,east_b,TOR
+WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1372,19.6,east_c,WAS
+DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1688,49.5,west_c,DAL
+DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1701,50.5,west_c,DEN
+GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1635,43.5,west_c,GSW
+HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1631,43,west_a,HOU
+LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1558,35.3,west_a,LAC
+LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1624,43,west_b,LAL
+MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1662,46.5,west_c,MEM
+MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1708,51.2,west_a,MIN
+NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1653,45.5,west_c,NOP
+OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1767,57.2,west_b,OKC
+PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1681,48.3,west_b,PHX
+POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1407,20.9,west_a,POR
+SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1663,47.1,west_a,SAC
+SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1555,35.3,west_b,SAS
+UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1482,27.9,west_b,UTA

dlt/nba_pipeline.py

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 from dlt.sources.helpers import requests
 
 # Specify the URL of the API endpoint
-url = "https://api.pbpstats.com/get-games/nba?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season"
+url = "https://api.pbpstats.com/get-games/nba?Season=2024-25&SeasonType=Regular%20Season"
 # Make a request and check if it was successful
 response = requests.get(url)
 response.raise_for_status()

evidence/pages/nba/historical_matchups.md

@@ -335,6 +335,8 @@ _If you don't like the current results, you can modify the elo inputs with this
     value=score
     current=0
     title="elo slider"
+    min=-100
+    max=100
 />
 <br>
 The current value is {inputs.elo_slider}. 

evidence/pages/nba/in-season tournament/index.md

@@ -16,8 +16,6 @@ ORDER BY conf, wins DESC, made_tournament_pct1 DESC, margin DESC
 
 # NBA In-season Tournament
 
-Congrats to the Los Angeles Lakers for winning the 2023-24 NBA In-Season Tournament!
-
 _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. The tournament consists of Group Play followed by single elimination knock out rounds. You can learn about it [here](https://www.nba.com/news/in-season-tournament-101)._
 
 ## Standings
@@ -32,9 +30,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Group B Standings
@@ -44,9 +42,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Group C Standings
@@ -56,9 +54,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
     </Tab>
     <Tab label="West">
@@ -70,9 +68,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Group B Standings
@@ -82,9 +80,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Group C Standings
@@ -94,9 +92,9 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
     </Tab>
 </Tabs>
@@ -113,20 +111,20 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Predicted Seeding - Knockout Round
 
         <DataTable data={tournament_seeding.filter(d => d.conf === "East")} rows=15>
         <Column id=team/>
-        <Column id="1_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="2_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="3_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="4_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="total_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
+        <Column id="1_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="1"/>
+        <Column id="2_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="2"/>
+        <Column id="3_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="3"/>
+        <Column id="4_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="3"/>
+        <Column id="total_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="Total"/>
         </DataTable>
     </Tab>
     <Tab label="West">
@@ -138,25 +136,25 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
         <Column id=record/>
         <Column id=pt_diff align=right/>
         <Column id=proj_record align=right/>
-        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
-        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
-        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1 title="Win Group"/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1 title="Win Wildcard"/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1 title="Made Tournament"/>
         </DataTable>
 
         ### Predicted Seeding - Knockout Round
 
         <DataTable data={tournament_seeding.filter(d => d.conf === "West")} rows=15>
         <Column id=team/>
-        <Column id="1_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="2_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="3_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="4_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
-        <Column id="total_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1/>
+        <Column id="1_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="1"/>
+        <Column id="2_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="2"/>
+        <Column id="3_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="3"/>
+        <Column id="4_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="3"/>
+        <Column id="total_pct1" contentType=colorscale colorMax=1 title="Total"/>
         </DataTable>
     </Tab>
 </Tabs>
 
-
+{#if most_recent_games.filter(d => d.type === "tournament" || d.type === 'knockout') > 0}
 ## Recent Games
 
 <DataTable data={most_recent_games.filter(d => d.type === "tournament" || d.type === 'knockout')} rows=5>
@@ -167,3 +165,4 @@ _New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. T
   <Column id=winning_team/>
   <Column id=score/>
 </DataTable>
+{/if}

evidence/pages/nba/index.md

@@ -29,7 +29,6 @@ This data was last updated as of <Value data={thru_date} column=end_date/>.
 
 ## [Upcoming Games](/nba/predictions)
 
-{#if filtered_future_games.length > 0}
 <Dropdown
     data={teams} 
     name=team_dd
@@ -50,12 +49,6 @@ This data was last updated as of <Value data={thru_date} column=end_date/>.
   <Column id=predicted_score title="Score"/>
 </DataTable>
 
-{:else}
-
-_The regular season is over. Check back next year!_
-
-{/if}
-
 ## [Team Standings](/nba/teams)
 
 <DataTable data={summary_by_team} link=team_link rows=5 search=true>

evidence/pages/nba/predictions/index.md

@@ -47,7 +47,6 @@ order by team
 </Accordion>
 
 
-{#if filtered_future_games.length > 0}
 ## Future Predictions
 
 _Historically, NBA teams win 62% of their games at home, which explains why teams with lower elo ratings can be predicted to win._
@@ -70,5 +69,4 @@ _Historically, NBA teams win 62% of their games at home, which explains why team
   <Column id=american_odds align=right title="Odds (Home)"/>
   <Column id=implied_line_num1 title="Line (Home)"/>
   <Column id=predicted_score title="Score"/>
-</DataTable>
-{/if}
+</DataTable>

evidence/pages/nba/teams/[nba_teams].md

@@ -31,7 +31,8 @@ queries:
 <BigValue 
     data={filtered_season_summary} 
     value='predicted_wins' 
-    comparison='vs_vegas_num1' 
+    comparison='vs_vegas_num1'
+    comparisonTitle='vs. Vegas'
 /> 
 
 <BigValue 
@@ -69,10 +70,13 @@ queries:
 
 ### Matchup Summary
 
-<DataTable
-    data={records_table.filter(d => d.team === params.nba_teams.toUpperCase())} 
-    rows=7
-/>
+<DataTable data={records_table.filter(d => d.team === params.nba_teams.toUpperCase())} rows=7>
+    <Column id=team/>
+    <Column id=type/>
+    <Column id=wins/>
+    <Column id=losses/>
+    <Column id=win_pct_num3 title="Win %"/>
+</DataTable>
 
 {#if future_games.length > 0}
 ### Upcoming Schedule
@@ -92,17 +96,20 @@ queries:
 
 <BigValue 
     data={playoff_odds.filter(d => d.team === params.nba_teams.toUpperCase())} 
-    value='top_six_pct1' 
+    value='top_six_pct1'
+    title='Top 6 Seed (%)' 
 /> 
 
 <BigValue 
     data={playoff_odds.filter(d => d.team === params.nba_teams.toUpperCase())} 
-    value='play_in_pct1' 
+    value='play_in_pct1'
+    title='Play-in (%)'
 /> 
 
 <BigValue 
     data={playoff_odds.filter(d => d.team === params.nba_teams.toUpperCase())} 
-    value='missed_playoffs_pct1' 
+    value='missed_playoffs_pct1'
+    title='Miss Playoffs (%)'
 /> 
 
 <AreaChart 

evidence/pages/nba/teams/index.md

@@ -31,9 +31,9 @@ queries:
   <Column id=record/>
   <Column id=elo_rating/>
   <Column id=avg_wins/>
-  <Column id=elo_vs_vegas_num1 contentType=delta/>
-  <Column id=make_playoffs_pct1/>
-  <Column id=win_finals_pct1/>
+  <Column id=elo_vs_vegas_num1 contentType=delta title="Elo vs. Vegas"/>
+  <Column id=make_playoffs_pct1 title="Make Playoffs (%)"/>
+  <Column id=win_finals_pct1 title = "Win Finals (%)" />
 </DataTable>
 
 {:else }

transform/dbt_project.yml

@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ vars:
   nba_elo_offset: 100          # nba offset to ELO to get to ~12% home advantage
   nfl_elo_offset: 52          # nfl offset to ELO to get to 7.5% home advantage
   ncaaf_elo_offset: 52        # ncaaf offset to ELO to get to 7.5% home advantage
-  nba_start_date: '2024-04-15'    # set as of date for start of season
+  nba_start_date: '2025-04-15'    # set as of date for start of season
 
 # external files are only registered as DuckDB views when they are created, not when they are referenced.
 on-run-start:

transform/models/nba/analysis/reg_season_predictions.sql

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 with
     cte_team_scores as (
-        from {{ ref("nba_results_by_team") }}
-        select team, avg(score) as pts
+        select t.team, coalesce(avg(r.score),115) as pts --add 115 to account for missing data
+        from {{ ref( "nba_teams")}} t
+        left join {{ ref("nba_results_by_team") }} r on r.team = t.team
         group by all
     ),
     cte_interim_calcs as (

transform/models/nba/analysis/reg_season_summary.sql

@@ -9,9 +9,9 @@ with
         select
             winning_team as team,
             e.conf,
-            round(avg(wins), 1) as avg_wins,
+            round(avg(wins)/80.0*82.0, 1) as avg_wins, -- gross up for 82 games
             v.win_total as vegas_wins,
-            round(avg(v.win_total) - avg(wins), 1) as elo_vs_vegas,
+            round(avg(v.win_total) - (avg(wins)/80.0*82.0), 1) as elo_vs_vegas, -- gross up for 82 games
             round(
                 percentile_cont(0.05) within group (order by wins asc), 1
             ) as wins_5th,

transform/models/nba/raw/nba_raw_schedule.sql

@@ -10,3 +10,4 @@ select
     notes,
     series_id
 from {{ source("nba", "nba_schedule") }}
+where arena <> 'Placeholder' -- removing IST games w/o teams & arena