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Update both scores & log their components
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@IanPhilips
IanPhilips committed Feb 11, 2025
1 parent 58669fc commit 3746f2d
Showing 1 changed file with 122 additions and 51 deletions.
173 changes: 122 additions & 51 deletions backend/shared/src/importance-score.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -105,19 +105,24 @@ export async function calculateImportanceScore(
}

const contractsWithUpdates: Contract[] = []
const marketComponents: any[] = []

for (const contract of contracts) {
const { importanceScore, freshnessScore, dailyScore } =
computeContractScores(
now,
contract,
todayComments[contract.id] ?? 0,
todayLikesByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
thisWeekLikesByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
todayTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
hourAgoTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
thisWeekTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0
)
const {
importanceScore,
freshnessScore,
dailyScore,
rawMarketImportanceBreakdown,
} = computeContractScores(
now,
contract,
todayComments[contract.id] ?? 0,
todayLikesByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
thisWeekLikesByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
todayTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
hourAgoTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0,
thisWeekTradersByContract[contract.id] ?? 0
)

if (isNaN(dailyScore)) {
log.error('NaN daily score for contract ' + contract.id)
Expand All @@ -141,6 +146,7 @@ export async function calculateImportanceScore(
contract.freshnessScore = freshnessScore
contract.dailyScore = dailyScore
contractsWithUpdates.push(contract)
marketComponents.push(rawMarketImportanceBreakdown)
}
}

Expand All @@ -159,14 +165,30 @@ export async function calculateImportanceScore(
log('')
log('Top 30 contracts by score')

contractsWithUpdates.slice(0, 30).forEach((contract) => {
log(
contract.importanceScore,
contract.question,
contract.token === 'CASH' ? '[sweep]' : ''
)
const topContracts = contractsWithUpdates.slice(0, 40).map((contract) => {
const breakdown =
marketComponents.find((mc) => mc.contractId === contract.id) || {}
return {
Question: contract.question.slice(0, 40),
Total: contract.importanceScore.toFixed(2),
Sweep: breakdown.sweepsScore?.toFixed(2) || '',
'24h v': breakdown.volume24HoursComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
'Trader hr': breakdown.traderHourComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Today: breakdown.todayScoreComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Liq: breakdown.liquidityScore?.toFixed(2) || '',
Newness: breakdown.newness?.toFixed(2) || '',
Mvmt: breakdown.marketMovtComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Closing: breakdown.closingSoonnnessComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Comments: breakdown.commentScore?.toFixed(2) || '',
Week: breakdown.thisWeekScoreComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Uniques: breakdown.uniqueBettorComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Volume: breakdown.volumeComponent?.toFixed(2) || '',
Uncertainty: breakdown.uncertainness?.toFixed(2) || '',
Conversion: breakdown.conversionScore?.toFixed(2) || '',
}
})

console.table(topContracts)
log('')
log('Bottom 5 contracts by score')
contractsWithUpdates
Expand All @@ -189,14 +211,19 @@ export async function calculateImportanceScore(
log('')
log('Top 30 contracts by freshness')

freshest.slice(0, 30).forEach((contract) => {
log(
contract.freshnessScore,
contract.question,
contract.token === 'CASH' ? '[sweep]' : ''
)
const freshestContracts = freshest.slice(0, 40).map((contract) => {
const breakdown =
marketComponents.find((mc) => mc.contractId === contract.id) || {}
return {
Question: contract.question.slice(0, 40),
'Fresh Score': contract.freshnessScore.toFixed(2),
'24h volume': breakdown.freshVolume24h?.toFixed(2) || '',
Today: breakdown.freshTodayScore?.toFixed(2) || '',
'Last Updated': breakdown.freshLastUpdated?.toFixed(2) || '',
}
})

console.table(freshestContracts)
log('')
log('Bottom 5 contracts by freshness')
freshest
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -313,14 +340,14 @@ export const computeContractScores = (
? closeTime <= now + DAY_MS
? 1
: closeTime <= now + WEEK_MS
? 0.9
? 0.8
: closeTime <= now + MONTH_MS
? 0.75
: closeTime <= now + MONTH_MS * 3
? 0.5
: closeTime <= now + MONTH_MS * 3
? 0.25
: closeTime <= now + YEAR_MS
? 0.33
: 0.25
? 0.1
: 0
: 0

const liquidityScore = isResolved
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -377,22 +404,39 @@ export const computeContractScores = (
? 1
: 0

// recalibrate all of these numbers as site usage changes
const rawMarketImportance =
sweepsScore +
2 * normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume24Hours + 1), 5) +
2 * normalize(traderHour, 20) +
2 * normalize(todayScore, 100) +
2 * liquidityScore +
newness +
marketMovt +
closingSoonnness +
commentScore +
normalize(thisWeekScore, 200) +
normalize(contract.uniqueBettorCount, 1000) +
(resolvedOverADayAgo ? 0 : normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume + 1), 7)) +
uncertainness +
(resolvedOverADayAgo ? 0 : conversionScore)
const sweepsScoreComponent = sweepsScore
const volume24HoursComponent =
3 * normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume24Hours + 1), 6)
const traderHourComponent = 2 * normalize(traderHour, 20)
const todayScoreComponent = 2 * normalize(todayScore, 100)
const liquidityScoreComponent = liquidityScore
const newnessComponent = newness
const marketMovtComponent = 3 * marketMovt
const closingSoonnnessComponent = 2 * closingSoonnness
const commentScoreComponent = commentScore
const thisWeekScoreComponent = normalize(thisWeekScore, 100)
const uniqueBettorComponent = normalize(contract.uniqueBettorCount, 1000) / 2
const volumeComponent = resolvedOverADayAgo
? 0
: normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume + 1), 7)
const uncertainnessComponent = uncertainness / 2
const conversionScoreComponent = resolvedOverADayAgo ? 0 : conversionScore

const computedRawMarketImportance =
sweepsScoreComponent +
volume24HoursComponent +
traderHourComponent +
todayScoreComponent +
liquidityScoreComponent +
newnessComponent +
marketMovtComponent +
closingSoonnnessComponent +
commentScoreComponent +
thisWeekScoreComponent +
uniqueBettorComponent +
volumeComponent +
uncertainnessComponent +
conversionScoreComponent

const rawPollImportance =
2 * normalize(traderHour, 20) +
Expand All @@ -407,18 +451,44 @@ export const computeContractScores = (
? bountiedImportanceScore(contract, newness, commentScore)
: outcomeType === 'POLL'
? normalize(rawPollImportance, 5) // increase max as polls catch on
: normalize(rawMarketImportance, 8)

const rawMarketFreshness =
(contract.volume24Hours / (contract.volume + 1)) *
normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume24Hours + 1), 5) +
normalize(todayScore, 10) +
normalize(0.05 - (now - contract.lastUpdatedTime) / DAY_MS, 0.05)
: normalize(computedRawMarketImportance, 8)

// Calculate freshness components
const todayRatio = todayScore / (thisWeekScore - todayScore + 1)
const hourRatio = traderHour / (thisWeekScore - traderHour + 1)
const freshnessFactor = clamp((todayRatio + 5 * hourRatio) / 5, 0.05, 1) // Reduced multiplier for hourRatio

const freshVolume24h =
(contract.volume24Hours / (contract.volume + 1)) *
normalize(Math.log10(contract.volume24Hours + 1), 5)
const freshTodayScore = normalize(todayScore, 10)
const freshLastUpdated =
normalize(0.05 - (now - contract.lastUpdatedTime) / DAY_MS, 0.05) / 2

const rawMarketFreshness = freshVolume24h + freshTodayScore + freshLastUpdated

const rawMarketImportanceBreakdown = {
contractId: contract.id,
sweepsScore: sweepsScoreComponent,
volume24HoursComponent,
traderHourComponent,
todayScoreComponent,
liquidityScore: liquidityScoreComponent,
newness: newnessComponent,
marketMovtComponent,
closingSoonnnessComponent,
commentScore: commentScoreComponent,
thisWeekScoreComponent,
uniqueBettorComponent,
volumeComponent,
uncertainness: uncertainnessComponent,
conversionScore: conversionScoreComponent,
// Freshness components
freshVolume24h,
freshTodayScore,
freshLastUpdated,
}

const freshnessScore =
outcomeType === 'POLL' || outcomeType === 'BOUNTIED_QUESTION'
? freshnessFactor * importanceScore
Expand All @@ -432,6 +502,7 @@ export const computeContractScores = (
dailyScore,
importanceScore,
logOddsChange,
rawMarketImportanceBreakdown,
}
}

Expand Down

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