Covid Model - Introduction and Purpose

This is designed to be a dead simple, accesible-to-anyone, quick-and-dirty model of coronavirus for use in estimating viral spread in response to r₀ changes and consequent effects of the medical system. It draws a disease course at time of infection and plays out that disease course. It should be easy to add mortality conditioned on healthcare demand, to add r0 reduction from NPIs, to test effects of asymptomatic individuals, etc. The assumptions are designed to be reasonable based on the linked studies.

Baseline Assumptions

Simplifications:

• Homogenous population
• Deterministic Model (for now)
• Homogenous healthcare system (for now)
• No Reinfection
• Timing medians are very near averages.
• Deaths only occur in critical pool.
• Homogenous Incubation Period (please send info on this!)
• 20% Asymptomatic Infection
• Spread happens while in incubation or while sick

Disease Characteristics

• Basic Reproductive Number, R₀ = 2.3
• Case Fatality Rate = 2.3

Disease Course

Incubation

• 5 Days

Severity

• Mild = 81%
• Severe = 14%
• Critical = 5%

Mild Course

• 14 Days

Serious Course

• 30 Days Overall
• Hospitalized Day 7
• Released Day 22

Critical Course

• 30 Days Overall
• Hospitalized Day 7
• On Vent Day 12
• Off Vent Day 19
• Released Day 22

Dead

• Hospitalized Day 7
• On Vent Day 12
• Dead Day 19

Sample Results

Mitigated Results

This should not be considered any sort of actuarial model or communication.