diff --git a/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts.csv b/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..61d53fd2ab --- /dev/null +++ b/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts.csv @@ -0,0 +1,781 @@ +"date","forecastmonth","forecastyear","newmoonnumber","currency","model","level","species","estimate","LowerPI","UpperPI","fit_start_newmoon","fit_end_newmoon","initial_newmoon" +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Forecast","All","total",211.73665121463,117.827732154673,305.645570274587,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Forecast","All","total",220.372148033639,89.1696835046635,351.574612562614,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Forecast","All","total",229.007644852647,65.5144139814402,392.500875723855,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Forecast","All","total",237.643141671656,44.1053866054387,431.180896737873,217,499,499 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+2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PH",0.400411224134203,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PH",0.663300355472,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PH",0.690475706234563,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PH",0.711103054397957,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.887231669851254,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.798982170589815,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.729920456693854,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.708446552235327,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.792068913604413,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.887370116308144,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.898162086469726,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.872679940445493,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.820166331737964,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.746498618438877,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.688848223032734,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PL",0.64373255509998,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.06554739164665,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.1262774726763,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.18189436809964,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.23281695634346,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.31321004437689,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.37658576896226,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.45756604495009,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.49771776499511,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.52276771379027,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.54590364309749,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.56659183676261,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PM",1.58544712527185,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",87.7894168335068,6,238,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",82.3350442713695,3,282,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",77.5448048831818,1,305,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",73.3378327476053,1,283,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",69.6431083128543,1,261,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",66.3982594783395,1,225,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",63.548508683299,1,194,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",61.0457481360159,1,184,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",58.8477277654093,0,173,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",56.9173419029716,0,176,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",55.2220029543408,1,165,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","PP",53.7330912307648,1,151,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925383232,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RF",0.0254237925392035,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",1.57758226644251,0,7,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",2.06505961401498,0,9,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",2.47648873537627,0,9,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",2.82373342838008,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",3.11680669561129,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",3.36415947503903,0,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",3.57292432783272,0,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",3.74912110984118,0,11,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",3.89783055771485,0,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",4.02334079481646,0,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",4.12927098178762,0,15,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RM",4.21867567714057,0,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.110024191345776,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.182537700658249,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.230329090610708,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.261826903573337,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.282586128686357,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.296267885808497,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.305285104774518,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.3112280722128,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.315144896509592,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.317726353100439,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.319427710540567,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","RO",0.320549022109137,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.0600455721822722,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.120454891551886,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.174933210235778,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.218065580541708,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.257852979908972,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.295809904834314,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.329594860455181,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.360332476352137,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.389523076956371,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.415720097814204,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.44026842041665,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SF",0.462930618440822,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.02611160770855,0,6,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.05112074083298,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.07085408470575,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.10063410371566,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.15320647280949,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.17334158579383,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.17856516437263,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.28771654235585,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.2787683722298,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.29715412222246,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.28711811004422,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SH",1.27826331179213,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054718495,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","SO",0.0127118054721885,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",188.535315358338,112,288,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",184.608270067243,89,319,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",181.149560178536,76,340,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",178.106896549473,69,361,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",175.437390620132,64,355,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",173.091470346675,62,374,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",171.034648686422,63,355,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",169.227355984828,62,367,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",167.642826658873,62,391,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",166.246117774356,58,395,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",165.026707537111,56,374,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","total",163.964400880015,54,367,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.309691165508097,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.40472731990946,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.433762831323595,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.443149635863704,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.448040727480501,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.449547950019291,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.447546654216649,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.446942009615401,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.447651960737528,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.447290029809714,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.446707751992468,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","BA",0.446472821130508,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",38.7961907338644,29,50,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",37.2840411282797,24,52,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",36.1934483721463,23,51,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",35.7283036832686,22,51,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",35.8633638768103,21,51,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",36.0108259382449,21,53,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",35.9148950851594,20,53,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",35.8943601383089,20,52,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",35.3224900800941,19,51,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",34.4712138301812,18,50,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",33.8144899728888,18,51,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DM",33.6429445576441,18,50,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",5.33453376557164,2,9,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",5.5759348451553,1,11,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",5.7309085278356,1,11,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",5.86336813594625,1,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.0217244189866,1,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.15743084524071,1,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.2478200917835,1,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.31739422344141,1,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.38551115441064,1,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.35427093641333,1,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.34881494644629,1,14,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DO",6.3304818429302,1,13,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DS",0.762827707982042,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DS",0.662572604764417,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DS",0.637452540452608,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","DS",0.62805076696648,0,2,217,499,499 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Env","All","RO",0.554366131853978,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.59691548822476,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.57105736834368,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.419433530146605,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.42561570219301,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.367022999853633,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.34871995729181,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","RO",0.348768612856178,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SF",0.770400418682634,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SF",1.4119550964821,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SF",1.91139410617652,0,5,217,499,499 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Env","All","SH",4.58718839964011,1,11,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",7.17438636648234,1,17,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",9.70992434855364,2,23,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",11.5881771401296,2,28,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",14.4934565099834,3,36,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",19.700107294442,4,49,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",21.00983936531,4,52,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",26.8343263848247,5,65,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",31.4422011546237,6,74,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",40.6792588969769,8,92,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SH",52.3866149035688,10,122,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",5.64826332877286e-28,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",4.58178192549274e-25,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",7.38252193301152e-24,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",2.61941504160027e-22,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",6.70151000653272e-26,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",0.124421188098048,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",0.000368829191157489,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",7.06954098252997e-08,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",0.00347320174703535,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",1.04151918041553,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",1.53659521203537,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","SO",11.5373299190383,3,25,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",161.293970817138,141,182,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",139.244275118196,114,163,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",124.756253964319,97,152,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",114.555137322645,87,142,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",105.164665292626,78,130,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",97.7464773691983,72,123,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",91.2421030589086,65,116,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",85.7014768519358,59,111,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",80.8562913856631,54,106,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",77.4264551763453,52,100,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",74.0902454047921,49,98,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","All","total",70.9370704103282,47,95,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.0681429482217708,0,0.136285896443542,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",39.5112350644895,24.0224734431504,54.9999966858286,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",6.14107058052407,0.282141161056038,11.9999999999921,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.902711450558667,0,2.99999999999999,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",4.63813516482388,0,9.59770946163925,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",0.498675511569111,0,2.00000000000495,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",23.800923493056,0.601846986112093,47,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",5.45656097310296,0,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",8.2427033065294,0,19.9999999999993,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",0.545310736931627,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",1.53239427204367,0,3.9996799144704,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.887231669851252,0,4.99999999999999,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PM",1.06554739164665,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PP",87.7894168335068,0,238,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RF",0.0169007978984164,0,0.0338015957968328,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RM",1.57758226644251,0,7,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RO",0.157351789661621,0,1.01226528186071,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SF",0.0600455721822722,0,0.120091144364544,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.02611160770855,0,6,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",5.64826332877286e-28,0,1.12965266575457e-27,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",186.41718988414,71.806979803732,301.027399964549,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.132304659800653,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",38.4092243397575,17.8184532973713,58.9999953821438,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",7.11809177336742,0,14.9999999999896,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.791071812837026,0,2.99999999999999,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",3.90945706163734,0,9.5933650417645,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",0.887154156658496,0,3.0000000000113,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",21.922422360335,0,55,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",5.88941400881639,0,15,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",7.73357582297865,0,22.9999999999991,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",1.02299802824183,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",1.17777537673063,0,3.99955471991195,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.798982170589814,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PM",1.1262774726763,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PP",82.3350442713695,0,282,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RF",0.0163846350240261,0,0.0327692700480521,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RM",2.06505961401498,0,9,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RO",0.22654178811099,0,1.01154949243333,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SF",0.120454891551886,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.05112074083298,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",4.58178192549274e-25,0,9.16356385098549e-25,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",180.830260907421,19.6307699219577,342.029751892885,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.19226435468922,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",37.4929833784722,13.9859730566817,60.9999937002627,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",7.95464862360781,0,18.999999999981,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.730387176655929,0,3.99999999999998,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",3.43355383766618,0,9.49397386699329,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",1.12839520072535,0,5.00000000001212,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",20.3290619524221,0,55,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",6.27697375374278,0,19,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",7.26531386707541,0,21.9999999999991,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",1.4406822847566,0,6,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",0.908614748841471,0,3.99951865600694,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.729920456693852,0.4598409133877,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PM",1.18189436809964,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PP",77.5448048831818,0,305,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RF",0.0201303286214117,0,0.0402606572428234,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RM",2.47648873537627,0,9,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RO",0.270708914576922,0,1.36158987856397,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SF",0.174933210235778,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.07085408470575,0.141708169411498,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",7.38252193301152e-24,0,1.4765043866023e-23,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",176.069478868589,0,367.617571915888,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.248432050547806,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",37.0113313000886,11.0226699725212,62.9999926276561,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",8.67093540447442,0,20.9999999999787,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.680334400171617,0,3.99999999999998,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",3.16731913708927,0,9.03966792071013,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",1.36072866558422,0,5.00000000002546,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",18.9794240558168,0,56,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",6.64292338819466,0,22,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",6.9000446820686,0,22.999999999999,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",1.80994168059275,0,8,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",0.704309820206784,0,2.99964156276834,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.708446552235326,0.416893104470648,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PM",1.23281695634346,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PP",73.3378327476053,0,283,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RF",0.0236132922450948,0,0.0472265844901896,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RM",2.82373342838008,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RO",0.310182240759665,0,1.36216937292837,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SF",0.218065580541708,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.10063410371566,0.20126820743132,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",2.61941504160027e-22,0,5.23883008320054e-22,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",171.998377629622,0,384.294632162538,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.301061692709574,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",37.3020726136608,9.60415362214031,64.9999916051813,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",9.28424310105412,0,22.9999999999749,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.639050796917168,0,3.99999999999998,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",3.02269826438805,0,8.51370920356304,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",1.48731226578867,0,6.00000000003238,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",17.8228645470009,0,57,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",6.91445589609049,0,22,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",6.57004841347061,0,20.9999999999991,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",2.13624399040184,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",0.549232879698444,0,2.99963238290722,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.792068913604412,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PM",1.31321004437689,0,5,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PP",69.6431083128543,0,261,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RF",0.0219132748408196,0,0.0438265496816392,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RM",3.11680669561129,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","RO",0.360048393238732,0,1.36222643497951,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SF",0.257852979908972,0,0.515705959817943,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.15320647280949,0.306412945618989,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",6.70151000653272e-26,0,1.34030200130654e-25,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",168.506286343051,0,395.178438670312,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","BA",0.350484736796532,0,1,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DM",37.590748834785,9.18150571131022,65.9999919582599,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DO",9.80937680405034,0,24.9999999999711,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","DS",0.605000020638166,0,3.99999999999998,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","NA",2.98488751210209,0,8.51717029323658,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OL",1.5515453886911,0,6.00000000004824,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","OT",16.8238806455564,0,55,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PB",7.18949992112482,0,26,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PE",6.40492412562169,0,19.9999999999992,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PF",2.42492633038725,0,10,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PH",0.431522327970935,0,2.99967299654858,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Ensemble","All","PL",0.887370116308143,0,3,217,499,499 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+2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SH",1.27826331179213,0.999999999999972,1.55652662358428,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Ensemble","All","SO",11.5373299190383,0,25,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Ensemble","All","total",154.337524567357,0,409.24731451429,217,499,499 diff --git a/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts_model_aic.csv b/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts_model_aic.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d5a6b3c19c --- /dev/null +++ b/predictions/2017-11-15Allforecasts_model_aic.csv @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +"date","currency","model","level","species","aic","fit_start_newmoon","fit_end_newmoon","initial_newmoon" +2017-11-15,"abundance","Forecast","All","total",3078.91433984281,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","AutoArima","All","total",93.0967117826335,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","All","BA",379.002057968669,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time 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Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RF",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","RM",0.147250753147013,0,1,217,499,499 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+2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.0607492650092135,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.0793796721478238,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.0929418627393948,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.102814594576084,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.110001548129311,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.115233362610683,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.119041914117579,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.121814387149667,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SH",0.123832636530446,0,0,217,499,499 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Time Series","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",33.4402185313258,19,52,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",34.561218657708,17,59,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",35.430028430385,15,63,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",36.1117446726174,15,68,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",36.655296397222,15,69,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",37.0822038506368,15,71,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",37.4145550948981,15,73,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",37.6728148544728,14,73,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",37.8920018134652,15,75,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",38.0532155847449,15,71,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",38.1889825832569,15,73,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","total",38.3164231923805,15,71,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","BA",0.514681027649636,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","BA",0.726592236739222,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","BA",0.729818913628857,0,2,217,499,499 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Env","Controls","RM",0.0103062455931653,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.010309958244101,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.0103094784092244,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.0103104806128251,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.0103102804950064,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.0103101855047357,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RM",0.0103100079953865,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RO",0.00877308936024136,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RO",0.00735468469865828,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","RO",0.00367294184217396,0,0,217,499,499 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Env","Controls","SF",0.693126534435944,0,2,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.07579221902622,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.1765879383806,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.25725424966572,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.57947721993635,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.76807755208888,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.50537964767767,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.47122451517895,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.65139291788057,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.60578725351174,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.48932203346445,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SF",1.36810898259904,0,4,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",1.24746887019298,0,3,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",2.86991781770844,0,7,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",5.01885012382708,0,12,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",7.48862486162722,1,18,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",8.25164331041693,1,19,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",10.072362760785,1,24,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",13.8869543774643,3,34,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",14.9055289403344,3,37,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",16.0942019189802,3,40,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",20.5637993956422,4,50,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",27.3655954955111,5,66,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SH",35.4532652615736,7,83,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,5,2018,506,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,6,2018,507,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,7,2018,508,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,8,2018,509,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,9,2018,510,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","SO",0,0,0,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,11,2017,500,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",27.439325666102,19,36,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,12,2017,501,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",24.5653875273512,15,34,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,1,2018,502,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",22.7370205890057,14,33,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,2,2018,503,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",21.4979963961187,12,32,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,3,2018,504,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",20.5921870217948,10,31,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,4,2018,505,"abundance","Poisson Env","Controls","total",19.9578414135955,10,30,217,499,499 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+2017-11-15,10,2018,511,"abundance","Ensemble","Controls","total",37.7486456330138,0,95.5909506100639,217,499,499 diff --git a/predictions/2017-11-15Controlsforecasts_model_aic.csv b/predictions/2017-11-15Controlsforecasts_model_aic.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d1c8ec2411 --- /dev/null +++ b/predictions/2017-11-15Controlsforecasts_model_aic.csv @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +"date","currency","model","level","species","aic","fit_start_newmoon","fit_end_newmoon","initial_newmoon" +2017-11-15,"abundance","Forecast","Controls","total",2444.96690293485,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","AutoArima","Controls","total",174.316664508386,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","BA",234.870157647321,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","DM",1354.53444889244,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time Series","Controls","DO",911.705658795525,217,499,499 +2017-11-15,"abundance","NegBinom Time 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